It seems that Republicans may have a secret weapon to use against their Democratic foes in the upcoming midterm elections: voter turnout.
As The Daily Wire reports:
Republicans are already seeing a huge advantage in turnout during the 2022 primaries, according to one pollster.
In Tuesday’s primary elections in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho, and Oregon, Republicans made up 54.9% of the total votes cast, according to John Couvillon, founder of the polling firm JMC Analytics. When factoring in the other five states that have already held primaries — Texas, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, and West Virginia, Republicans account for fully 60% of votes cast in the primaries so far.
“In every state where I’ve been measuring turnout changes relative to previous midterms, I’m seeing a clear advantage on the Republican side,” Couvillon told the New York Post Wednesday. Couvillon added that the data was “not super representative,” since it was only from 10 states with early primaries, and there are still 174 days before the general elections. Still, the data from these primaries suggest that “states that are swinging and are Republican are going to move far to the right,” he said.
Couvillon also shared his data on Twitter Wednesday. According to the data, overall turnout in the 10 states that have already had primaries was up 21% from 2018, which he noted was a high turnout year in itself. But a partisan breakdown showed a massive advantage for Republicans — so far, Democratic turnout has totaled just under five million votes, while Republicans have cast nearly 7.5 million. In addition, Democratic turnout increased by just 3% over 2018, while Republican turnout increased by 38%.
PARTISAN PRIMARY TURNOUT, 2022 v 2018
Now we have a sample of 10 states.
Overall turnout up 21% (and 2018 was a high turnout year); Dem turnout +3%, Rep turnout +38%
The Republican % of the vote went from 53 to 60% of the electorate.
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) May 18, 2022
Meanwhile several states actually showed Democrat turnout actually went down during Tuesday’s primaries compared to 2018, a bad sign for Democrats hoping to hold the House and Senate this fall.