Photo by Gage Skidmore

For half a decade now, America’s media elite have been obsessed with former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s conversion to Trumpism.

Press and TV are daily consumed with his actions and prospects and the future of the party he captured in 2016.

Perhaps it is time to consider the prospects of President Joe Biden and the political future of his embattled presidency.

What are the odds that Biden, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama before him, will run again in 2024, win reelection, serve out a second term and transfer his office to the 47th president on Jan. 20, 2029?

My guess: The odds of that happening are roughly the same as the odds that last-minute entry Rich Strike would win the Kentucky Derby, as he left the starting gate at Churchill Downs at 80-1.

Consider the first hurdle Biden faces on the way to renomination in 2024 — the midterm elections five months off.

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached record highs in January, both have seen eight weeks of wipeouts of trillions of dollars in value as we approached bear-market territory by the end of last week.

Stock portfolios, pensions and retirement benefit plans have been gutted. These massive market losses are also a lead indicator pointing to a recession right ahead, just as voters pass judgment on a Democratic Party that controls the White House and both houses of Congress.

But even before we reach recession, Americans have already been living with a Biden inflation of 8% that has lasted for months and affected all the necessities of normal life, such as groceries and gasoline.

And the worst seems yet to come.

The Federal Reserve has reversed course from its easy money days and begun to raise interest rates to squeeze the Biden inflation out of the economy. What lies ahead may remind people who were around then of Jimmy Carter’s “stagflation,” where interest rates hit 21% to kill an inflation that reached 13%.

As for the crisis on the southern border, it is deeper than ever. Some 234,000 migrants were caught illegally entering the U.S. in April alone, with thousands of others evading any contact with U.S. authorities.

This is an invasion rate of some 3 million illegal migrants a year.

Shootings, killings, carjackings, criminal assaults, and smash-and-grab robberies in record numbers are the subject of our nightly news.

And the latest national polls suggest the country is holding Biden responsible. The president’s approval rating is down to 39%, and only 1 in 3 Americans think he is doing a good job handling the economy and that the nation is headed in the right direction.

Now the omicron variant of COVID-19 is making a comeback; infections are again over 100,000 a day.

Biden might find consolation from how his predecessors overcame midterm defeats. Clinton in 1994 lost 54 House seats and won reelection easily in 1996. Obama lost 63 House seats in 2010 to come back and win handily over Mitt Romney in 2012.

Why cannot Biden ride out the anticipated storm in this year’s midterms and come back to win election in 2024, as did Clinton and Obama?

Age has something to do with it. Clinton was 50 in his reelection year 1996. Obama was 51 in his reelection year 2012. And both were at the peak of their political powers.

Biden, on election day 2024, will be two weeks shy of his 82nd birthday. Should he serve out a second term, he would not leave the White House until he had turned 86. Biden has been America’s oldest president since the day he took office.

Alexander Hamilton in the Federalist Papers wrote of “energy in the executive” as being an indispensable attribute of good government.
Does Biden, with his shuffling gait, regular gaffes, and physical and cognitive decline manifest that attribute of which Hamilton wrote?
The likely scenario for Biden?

His party sustains a crushing defeat in November comparable to what Clinton and Obama suffered. But the party does not immediately rally around Biden as present and future leader, as it did with Clinton and Obama. Critics inside the Democratic coalition begin to blame Biden for the loss.

Ambitious Democrats, sensing disaster if Biden tops the ticket in 2024, begin to call for him to stand down and give way to a younger candidate, a new face, in 2024.

One or two progressives declare for president, and the pressure builds on Biden to avoid a personal and political humiliation in the 2024 primaries by standing down, as Harry Truman did in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson did in 1968.

By early 2023, Biden will have adopted the line that dealing with the challenge of China and Russia and, at the same time, coping with recession and inflation require his full attention. And these preclude a national political campaign for reelection.

And then President Joe Biden announces he will not run again.

Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.” To find out more about Patrick Buchanan and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators website at

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of


  1. By the time we get a new President or even anyone with common sense back in the WH there will be no Republic left. For God’s sake will someone please stop this man or whoever is destroying my country. How did our Conservative leaders allow this to happen, unless you wanted it to happen?

  2. The Author is WRONG the first hurdle Pedo Joe must over come is his own Alzheimer’s and Dementia. Then his STUPIDITY and after that maybe the midterms. Pedo Joe won’t make it to the end of his first INFESTATION of the White House if REAL Republicans take power during the Midterms. Not even the Ho will be safe if that happens and would be the Best thing for America. This is why Monkeypox is finding itself in the News more and more. It will be the next Pandemic so Democraps can CHEAT in the Election since that is the only way they can win.

  3. [What are the odds that Biden, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama before him, will run again in 2024]

    Since the mid-1980s, God has been warning that heathen nations will destroy the United States in a nuclear attack… I highly doubt that there will ever be another presidential election, maybe not even a midterm election this November…
    Judgment begins in the LORD’s House, and judgment will come in God’s timing…

  4. Biden wasn’t fit to run in 2020 and yet there he sits in the White House. Arrogant, shuffling, bumbling, embarrassing, idiot.

  5. When one thinks of how badly Biden has done thus far, one has to wonder just why he’s still considered America’s President! Were it up to me, he would never have been considered as the President of America and I very much hope that he is removed from the position ASAP!
    Frances Weingarten,
    [email protected]

  6. Biden’s cognitive resonance is quickly failing. At the rate this moron is stepping in deep caca he will not only lose the House, but the Senate as well.

  7. God lets hope this is his last Hurrah and everything else. What he LOSER he has been. It’s over Senile Old man.

  8. Joe Biden and the Communist Democrat Party are the Head Fountains of Terrorism against American Society. They have planned our death and only if we voted them out is just a start. We also must clean up our own house in our own lives so these types of terrorists wont return to kill us. Our Societal filth of abortion, murder, Porn from LGTBQ, transgender, Marxist Luciferian Leftism must be abolish from our midst to preserve our future.

  9. After 5 years of lying, cheating and stealing the liberal dem bloodsucking parasitical ticks, still. don’t see it coming. Daily, they inch closer to the 2nd American Civl War.
    They really believe the government and the military will take care of them.
    Try to understand, the liberal scum want to rule the planet, they have no other aim.
    You have alienated the military to the point, they just want your life.
    The Dawn is about o burst, with a sound like Thunder, then you are over.

  10. We can only hope the “Biden agenda”, better known as the “communist takeover plan”, can be defeated in November. It will take an OVERWHELMING show of voters ! MAKE SURE YOU ARE ONE OF THEM! The DemocRats are printing ballots now!

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