Tensions in the South China Sea between Chinese and U.S. naval forces, deadly clashes with India on the Tibetan border, Chinese incursions, and threats against Taiwan, and growing global opposition to Chinese belligerence are all increasing the chances of armed conflict. One U.S. geopolitics expert is pessimistic war can be avoided but believes China can be contained.
John Mearsheimer, author of the 2001 book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, predicted much of what we see today in U.S.-China relations. He concluded that “China’s strategic goal was to become Asia’s hegemon and that the United States would try to prevent that.”
While I may disagree with Mearsheimer’s contention that “Becoming a global hegemon today is nearly impossible. And therefore, states rather seek to dominate as regional hegemons,” his other observations are very much on point.
For one, he is very clear about the different approaches toward China between Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
In an interview with Germany’s Deutsche Welle (DW), Mearsheimer said, “I think there’s no question that, when former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the pivot to Asia in 2011, the U.S. was just beginning to think about containing China. During the Barack Obama presidency, not much was done.”
But, Mearsheimer adds, “since Donald Trump became US president, there’s no question the US is pursuing an ambitious containment policy that goes beyond containment. The US has tried to roll back China’s economy, it is targeting China’s technology sector.”
Following Ronald Reagan’s playbook to defeat the Soviet Union, Trump is the first U.S. president to seriously take on the Chinese threat before it becomes unbeatable.
While he believes there’s “every reason to think that the US will be able to contain China for the foreseeable future,” Mearsheimer says he “is slightly more pessimistic now about the possibility of an actual war between the US and China.”
He makes the distinction between the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and China today:
…the US and the Soviet Union focused mainly on Central Europe. To have a war between the US and the Soviet Union would have involved World War III in Central Europe with potentially nuclear weapons. And it was almost impossible to start a war like that.
The geography in East Asia today is much different. Potential conflict points involve the South China Sea, Taiwan and the East China Sea.
It’s much easier to imagine a war breaking out in the South China Sea. Of course, it would be a limited war, but that it would take place at sea and it would involve largely air and naval forces makes it more thinkable than a war in Central Europe would have been during the Cold War.
Mearsheimer notes he is ‘not saying that’s likely, but it’s a plausible scenario and that is very worrisome.”
As President Trump expands the U.S. coalition against China, Mearsheimer predicts there will be two alliance structures developing “like the two alliance structures during the Cold War: NATO on one side, and the Warsaw Pact on the other.” In his equation, “Pakistan, North Korea, Cambodia, Laos and probably Myanmar will likely side with China. Japan, India, Singapore and Vietnam will be allied with the US.”
To the latter anti-China group I would add Australia.
All this should help to constrain China, but if Trump’s ‘rollback’ strategy is undermined by a future Biden-Harris administration, the threat may become very different.
As Mearsheimer notes, “China is a fundamentally different adversary. It has over four times as many people, with a highly dynamic capitalist economy. Therefore, it has the potential to become much wealthier than the US. So, the US could end up opposing a country much larger than itself.”
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one would hope was is the last thing to do
A lot of Americans have made a lot of money by expanding their companies to countries with lower paid workers. Then once things are moving along they close their U.S. operations. The result is that we close the small businesses that support the big Corporations. Obama wasn’t grew up for the most part outside of the United States and therefore had and has a Socialist mentality so what ever China wanted was O.K. Look at Obama Care, (once called Hillery Care) Russia and China both have similar general health care programs but they don’t have any service for the general public.
We respect women in our Country, while the rest of the world still views women as property. I have never understood why we thought that they would give the a level of respect to our female Secretary of State. I have traveled on business and know first hand how poorly we are represented by our Embassy system. In many countries there are only five or six Americans with the balance of the staff coming from the host country. I visited one and was interested in how they presented American Made machinery. First they offered the largest U.S. brand then they offered a European brand (my employer made the machine but they didn’t know that).
China has and is making every effort to control their neighbors, they are trying to intimidate the U.S. now by closing the main port for shipments to the U.S. Think for a minute we had the first death from COVID-19 in Oregon and with-in two weeks New York was in a full emergency situation, viruses normally travel across the country not from both ends to the center. We were attacked.
NOW hear this !!!! all trade associations with china should NOW go under strict scrutiny, and be reduced immeadiately to HALF the trading currently in progress. this action would see greater oportunities for Australian people to get MOTIVATED, to be self employed, and use government assisted funds, to build and expand our manufacturing skills ,, universaties technical schools and on line learning of new traits and skills, can now be a reality—there are so many mini entrepreneurs, doing very well with small on line busineses. ITS TIME Australia took hold of produce and products, service items, and proove we can be self sufficiant. All labeling of products must show bold markings of AUSTRALIAN MADE, so the population can immeadiately identify our determinatiion to be its OWN COUNRTY. Make ALL other county manufactured goods portray origin of manufacture in the same way BOLD AND BRIGHT. all at a glance on our super shop shelves. WE must stop ANY PURCHASES OF LAND OR HOUSING , AND OTHER ASSETS FROM BEING CONTROLLED BY THE CHINESE. STOP IMMEADIATELY…..cut out our “travel to china”, limit thier flights and visits to or country. limit tourism of chinese, cut out diplomatic freedom they have at the moment. no more USEING OUR UNIVERSATIES for their own gain, and to stop their copy cat ways of undermining production of millions if items we could produce ourselves. “put me in government,”, i will do a jeff kennet, and rule the counrty with an iron fist… ALL OUR SERVICES, NEED A BLOODY GOOD SHAKEUP, strict business ethics must be implemented,and overseen, christ, i could go no forever ……….dick smith has been campaigning for years, but he can’t do this on his own ! get these LAZY ARSHOLES off welfare, change the system,, no work no dough, MAKE the idle youth of today ‘GET A JOB” CUT THE DOLE DOWN TO HALF, too many young people sponging on government hand outs, MANDATORY 2 YEAR MILITARY TRAING, WE NEED MORE ARMED FORCES TO LOOK AFTER THAS COUNTRY. .ths must be done- it gas a 2 fold advantage of teaching youn’uns ceativity, dicipline honesty, and give a sense of hope to millions knowing that these new fresh out of school kids, are NOT useles and can work , many many peolpe have become top trades .professional..people, some stay in forces, and become true australians, people who CARE about their country… stop the government WASTE OF MONEY ,PROPING UP THESE BUMS ON WELFARE, AND THE SCAMMERS AMONGST THE NEW EMIGRANTS AND SO CALLED REFUGEES, FALSE WORKCARE PAYOUTSTHEIR RIGHTS HAVE TOB ANALIZED AND RE-THOUGHT, they are our biggest tax dodgers and givernment hand out -SUCKERS– in austraklia it has to stop.NOW.THEY DONT HAVE OR CARE A HOOT ABOUT AUSTRALIANS, OR RULES REGULATIONS OR TRY TO FIT IN TO AUSTRALIAN WAYS AND LIFE HERE –SORRY BUT THIS IS OBVIOUS; and they all drive new BIG 4 WHEEL DRIVES, BENZ CARS ,BMW’S.,.DO NOT try to learn english or make efforts to get to know the people who live here , AUSTRALIANS, NO THEY USE, IGNORE, INTIMIDATE, AND SHOW NO GRATITUDE TO ANYONE, FOR “TAKING THEM IN” AND GIVING THEM 100% OPORTUNITY TO SETTLE IN THEIR NEW SURROUNDINGS. THEY DO NOT “MIX”,BUT THEY HAVE “ALL” THE ASSTS AND COMFORT IN LIFE HERE, WHICH WOULD NORMALY TAKE DECADES FOR “”AUSTRALIANS ” TO WORK FOR AND “EARN”. HOW MANY ARE NATIIONALIZED? HOW MANY CARE ABOUT OUR FLAG, OR OUR FALLEN SOLDIERS OF PAST WARS, OR OU REMEMBERANCE OF THEM ….”NONE” to my knowledge,,, W ake up australia, government and law makers, we are losing our country to thieves, con men , and takers….
Rolling back commiebama’s orders is a win win for President Trump and the American Patriots.
Obama did nothing in 8 years to move the U.S.A. forward in any capacity. His interest was tearing down what gave him HIS opportunities, but never advocated for the rest of America, let alone the black communities (think major ghetto cities he ignored). Nothing changed for them. He’s a fraud that stole America’s soul…shameful.