CCP-led China has been critical of the U.S. role in Afghanistan from the beginning of its intervention in 2001, even as it benefited from America’s two-decades-long ‘strategic distraction’ which allowed China to grow dramatically. To Beijing, noted China analyst Yun Sun in War on the Rocks in May, “the war has long deviated from its original goal of counter-terrorism and morphed into a plan to control the heart of Eurasia and China’s backyard.”
And now the sudden U.S. withdrawal by President Biden is adding growing chaos to the mix. Chaos, which might require, or allow, Chinese intervention. This could be done alone through the United Nations, or with Russia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
On June 21, the South China Morning Post reported:
The growing violence has raised fears for Beijing that instability and terrorism could spill over into its borders, including into the neighbouring Xinjiang region, where China has been accused of repression of Uygurs and other Muslim-majority ethnic minority groups.
It could also threaten Chinese development projects under Beijing’s infrastructure investment strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing indicated this month that it wanted to “substantially expand” its projects under the initiative, including in Afghanistan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a meeting with Afghanistan and Pakistan in June that the accelerated withdrawal of US troops posed a “challenge” to Afghanistan, but could be beneficial for the country’s long-term security.
Wang also said China supported talks between the Afghan government and Taliban negotiators, and noted that the Beijing-Russian-led SCO could play a bigger role in the peace process.
So, how might China respond? Returning to the piece in War on the Rocks, Sun added:
In the worst-case scenario that an organic political reconciliation fails and that all the regional frameworks are unable to bring about a solution, China would likely reach out to the United Nations, including asking for a potential U.N. intervention, to stabilize Afghanistan. The recent message from Chinese analysts about China potentially sending peacekeepers to Afghanistan “under the terms of U.N. Charter if the security situation in the South Asian country poses a threat to Xinjiang after American troops pull out” is a signal and a testing of the waters in this regard.
It is entirely conceivable that China’s own security presence along the border — and even inside Afghanistan under the banner of bilateral cooperation — will intensify. In recent years, evidence of these activities include China helping Afghanistan patrol the Wakhan Corridor and the widely reported arrest of a Chinese intelligence network in Afghanistan this past January.
China would like to incorporate Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative, or even make it an organic addition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This proposal was first made in 2017 and in the past year has seen “encouraging signs” as Afghanistan re-export trade through the Gwadar port in Pakistan commenced in 2020. China understands that economic development in Afghanistan and regional integration will remain challenging after the U.S. withdraws. Nevertheless, this is a policy objective that Beijing will likely continue to pursue.
Then there is the SCO. Using the SCO as a vehicle for China in Afghanistan was first touted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The idea was then suggested again a week later in a June 27 piece in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) – “Could Shanghai Cooperation Organisation help stabilise Afghanistan after US pull-out?”
“Led by China and Russia and created in 2001, the SCO also includes India, Pakistan and four other former Soviet republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. It has four observer states – Afghanistan, Mongolia, Belarus and Iran – and six dialogue partners.”
“Instability resulting from the American withdrawal may force the group to intervene in some form,” writes the author.
As a Eurasian security grouping focusing on ‘anti-terrorism cooperation,’ member states have conducted multiple joint military exercises, and this could see a way for both China and Russia to gain added security influence in a weakened, post-U.S. Afghanistan.
Of course, Russia’s commanding role in the SCO raises historical concerns.
“Any intervention by the security grouping, which is led by Russia and China, would be ‘totally different from the Soviet invasion’, diplomatic observers say,” according to SCMP.
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of AmericanActionNews.com
Fine. Let them.
Will Russia rerun 1979 pull out ?? or will China run poppy fields for drugs
Seems Hunter Biden, with his China connection, is the read con-artist within that deal-making gaggle of Beltway-political elitists so let the woke crowd enlist him to secure the spin needed to save face with regard to this blood-spilled ordeal.
Isn’t it ironic that Trump called for a similar withdrawal, and he was lambasted by liberals in Congress and the media for suggesting such a plan? Don’t Americans have memories? Numb Nuts is simply feigning some sort of dovish gesture to convince our population that he’s a peace broker. (While he deploys our troops into the Middle East for combat operations) Maybe he’s fishing for a Nobel Prize…..
No, Biden made his biggest mistake within 24 hours of being sworn in. He has allowed an invasion to occur along our southern border. It is a huge mistake from sociopolitical AND national security points of view.
It’s not a mistake. Illegal aliens vote for liberals, and they flood our welfare offices and other publicly supported institutions to gain housing, education, healthcare and food stamps. They even win our lotteries! It’s a crime of immense proportions when our own government supports such an invasion. Americans need to wise up and bring our leaders into line with our laws and our sovereignty.
biden has made so many terrible decisions it would be extremely difficult to see just one CATASTROPHIC EVENT!!! I do believe that we can take 2022 and give it back to Republicans, and then for sure 2024 will go back to PATRIOTIC AMERICANS, PEOPLE THAT PUT AMERICA FIRST, PEOPLE THAT LOVE AMERICA, PEOPLE THAT WANT A INCLUSIVE AND HONEST GOV’T!!! biden/harris COMMUNIST REGIME BE DAMNED!!!
when you see what Biden is doing; his complete disregard for our border security, his stumbling around in the Middle East, trying to appease Iran, and ignoring our only friend Israel, his distain for the Constitution, and his continual LYING about virtually EVERYTHING, from meaningless lies about what a great baseball player he is, to lying about the first and second amendments and what they mean……I cannot understand how anyone could have in good conscience have voted for him…he is continuing Obama’s plans to destroy America while enriching himself and his family….it’s pathetic.
China has long wanted to build an oil pipeline from China to Iran. The American takeover of Afghanistan prevented that. Now China has the opportunity to do it.
Is it possible this is Biden’s motivation for abandoning Afghanistan? To allow that pipeline to be built? Think of the ramifications….
Let Tsar Putin and Comrade Xi duke it out. Tee hee hee… The Afghanis will be waiting in the wings with stratagems and torments galore, just as they have for all wannabe conquerors since Alexander the Great. And now they have been thoroughly ruined by the Taliban, so the world is now their oyster!
Bydon is just leaving Afg….where as Trump would be able to do it in a way best for ALL.
Waking up as illegal intruder in our White House each day is Biden’s biggest mistake!!!
Have at it…They kicked Russia out once…They will do it again…GRAVE YARD OF EMPIRES …HELLO CHINA…LOL….
Yes, we should hand Afghanistan to China. It would be the perfect move to counter China’s desire to rule the world, by giving them the most ruthless bastards left on the face of the earth to fight.
Think of it as just punishment for attacking the world with Covid and hiding the truth. Since Chinese Communist hate Muslims, and Muslims hate “Non Belivers”, a few hundred years of war and killing between them should keep both occupied and focused on something besides doing the rest of the world harm..
“Cage Fight at it’s best”….
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