Donald Trump has a very good chance to all but bring the GOP presidential primary to a close on Tuesday night. The latest two polls out of Indiana have Trump not only winning the state, but winning it huge.
The first shock poll is from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. They have Trump at 49% and leading Ted Cruz by 15%. The poll was done entirely after Cruz’s announcement of Carly Fiorina as his running mate. The poll also found that Indiana voters disapproved of the pact between Cruz and Kasich which left the state to Cruz in exchange for leaving New Mexico and Oregon to Kasich.
The findings of the NBC poll were confirmed in a poll by Gravis Marketing that was done over the weekend. Gravis has Trump at 44% and leading Cruz by 17%. The poll also found that 19% of Indiana voters were still undecided.
The Real Clear Politics polling average gives Trump a 9.3% lead over Cruz. If this margin holds, it’s virtually guaranteed that Trump will sweep all of Indiana’s 57 delegates. Indiana’s delegates are winner take all with some based on the statewide results with the rest based on results in each congressional district.
A sweep of Indiana will all but guarantee that Trump will reach 1,237 to clinch the nomination. All Trump would need to do is win New Jersey, sweep West Virginia, get around 35-40% in New Mexico, Oregon , and Washington State, and win 15-20 of California’s 53 Congressional districts. Trump is of course expected to do much better than even that worst case scenario.
The only question is what will the remnants of the #NeverTrump movement do? We’ll find out over the next few months.
AAN Staff
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