Political analyst Mark Halperin consistently foreshadowed Vice President Kamala Harris’ struggles during the 2024 presidential election, which she ultimately lost to President-elect Donald Trump.
Harris lost all seven battleground states to Trump, despite the tight margins in those states throughout the race, according to the RealClearPolling averages. Halperin, appearing on Newsmax and his own 2WAY platform, accurately analyzed that securing these crucial states and the presidency would be challenging for Harris, based on data, his sources and his experience covering campaigns.
WATCH:
On Oct. 8, Halperin warned Harris was on a poor trajectory in the swing-states, citing troubling private polling and conversations with both Democrats and Trump affiliates, all of whom agreed that Trump was moving into a stronger position.
“I just saw some new private polling today that’s very robust … She’s in a lot of trouble … The conversation I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours,” Halperin said.
He identified Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as the states where Harris was most at risk.
“I’m not saying she’ll lose all six, but she’s in danger. The only one that the Democrats say she’s not in danger of losing is [Nevada] … She could lose any of those six, right?” the political analyst added. “I mean, she could lose all seven but Democrats will tell you they’re worried about those six. They’re less worried about the seventh. I don’t know any Trump person who says they’re worried about losing any of the seven.”
WATCH:
Halperin continued to warn about the state of Harris’ campaign on Oct. 14, pointing to her shifting rhetoric, which included accusing Trump’s staff of preventing him from doing a “60 Minutes” interview, debating her again and publishing his medical records. The political analyst asserted that the vice president’s attack lines at the time signaled her campaign may be heading toward failure.
“She’s talking about stuff that really has no effect on the real lives of real people, okay? When you are in the end, and you’re looking at the polls every day, and the stuff you haven’t been doing that isn’t working, according to your own data, what do you do? You start talking about new stuff to see what sticks to the wall,” Halperin said. “So she’s now talking about a bunch of stuff related to Trump’s being secretive: no medical records, won’t debate, won’t do ’60 Minutes.’”
“It got a lot of the attention in the press. I will say, having covered winning and losing campaigns … Everybody who’s ever lost in the last three weeks, they start to bring up new stuff,” he added. “If you go to a Green Bay diner today … ask people there if they’re going to decide who they vote for based on whether Trump will do a ’60 Minutes’ interview or whether he’ll do another debate … These are all signs that they know they have a problem, and I’ll say, if you can find me a single voter who will vote based on this, good luck.”
WATCH:
On Oct. 25, Halperin pointed to mounting data suggesting Trump was gaining momentum against Harris, highlighting The New York Times/Siena College’s last national poll of the 2024 election cycle, which found Trump and Harris tied at 48% after their previous poll found the vice president leading 49% to 46%.
“There’s qualitative and quantitative data everywhere you look that things have moved in Trump’s direction and that it will be difficult for her to win, but not impossible … The conventional wisdom has been, even though it may be false, that if Donald Trump is tied or within a couple points in the national poll, he’s going to win,” Halperin said. “Now The New York Times says it’s possible that Kamala Harris could win the electoral college and lose the popular vote. And we’ve talked about Trump over-performing from last time in the big blue states that could make him a bigger popular vote winner, but still lose the electoral college. Possible.”
WATCH:
As the election neared, Halperin highlighted Harris’ weakening position in the Sun Belt states. On Nov. 1, he noted that Harris’ diminishing chances in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina provided Trump with additional paths to victory.
“As her chances of winning the four bigger Sun Belt states have receded, that gives Trump more options to get to 270 … The reality of the private polling, which differs from the public polling on both sides — and Trump is, you know — got a chance to win all three of the Midwestern states, the Great Lake states,” Halperin said. “And he just probably will need one to win it. And he leads a movement, she doesn’t. And doubts about her continue.”
WATCH:
On Nov. 4, Halperin warned that Harris was facing challenges with key Democratic constituencies and regions in Michigan.
“The Democrats — first [President] Joe Biden, now Kamala Harris — has issues there with Arab Americans, Muslim Americans, Jewish Americans, labor, young black men. And we’re seeing the same pattern there that we see in the other battlegrounds: Under-performance in the metro areas, Detroit, and then strong performance in the rural areas, presumably Trump voters,” Halperin said. “So I think that it may be the outlier and maybe Donald Trump wins others and doesn’t win there. But I could imagine all of Michigan going Trump.”
Harris only beat Trump by 29% in Wayne County, where Detroit is located, while Biden won the county by 38% in 2020, according to the Detroit Free Press. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 18% of the vote in the majority Middle Eastern city of Dearborn, which Trump won.
Featured Image Credit: Lorie Shaull from St Paul, United States
