We regularly hear that on issue rankings, abortion is the most important issue for only 4% to 5% of the country. But that is not asking the right question.
A deep dive on abortion, combining both extensive qualitative and quantitative research, asked two additional questions.
First, when also asked if they agreed that “there are more important issues than abortion that a politician must address,” nationally 23% disagreed with the statement, including 26% of women and 28% of self-described pro-choice voters.
Even more importantly, 48% of likely voters agreed with the statement “I could never vote for an elected official whose beliefs on abortion are different from mine.” From focus groups, we learned that the agreement doesn’t need to be exact, but it should be in the ballpark and certainly can’t be the opposite.
We think the way to explain the discrepancy is that for some, abortion is less of a policy issue and more a gateway requirement for even considering a candidate. It is similar to asking someone what is most important to them in the person they are looking to date. They give you a list, but when you look at their behavior, all the dates are in the same age range and level of education. Those were not listed as “most important characteristics” because they are such givens that the person didn’t think to state them, but that is the subgroup to which all other important characteristics then apply. Same for many voters – with an acceptable abortion position defining the subgroup of candidates to whom issues then apply.
Our research showed that “pro-choice” means everything and anything short of an outright ban, including to many even a legal-only-to-12-weeks or even 6-weeks position. In contrast, “pro-life” has been successfully branded by the left as its most extreme incarnation — no abortions, possibly not even to save the life of the mother.
Indeed, many women believe that some states have this absolutist position as their law. In fact, abortion is legal in every state, at least to save the life of the mother, with most states having additional exceptions and time periods during which abortions are legal. You can see the details on this interactive map at FactsAboutAbortionNow.com.
Perhaps one of the most important findings is the need to provide more care and support for women who find themselves facing this difficult decision. In fact almost all voters care equally or more about the mother than they do about the baby.
Republicans — regardless of their position on abortion — have the opportunity to make their position less polarizing, as Sen. J.D. Vance did in the debate, by using stories and language that shows the common ground and shared empathy that they have with voters, including the vast majority of those who identify as pro-choice.
First, when facing a question about abortion, candidates should not duck or pivot to something else. Pivoting is viewed as “hiding something” and many are “looking for” candidates to do this.
Voters want to know when abortion would be legal, including exceptions past any specific time limit. GOP candidates should use the words “legal,” not just “accessible” or “available,” which to some seem to be weasel words. They should talk about the specific circumstances under which they believe abortion should be legal and then at what point a healthy baby is too developed for abortion to be appropriate except under extraordinary circumstances. Saying “abortion should be legal before a certain point, with exceptions after that” beats “abortion should be illegal with exceptions after a certain point” (56% to 32%), with 79% approval among those who want abortion legal to a “certain point.”
When discussing limits, always specify the list of exceptions that apply after the period when abortion is legal. Eighty-three percent nationally — a number which is roughly consistent across all demographics — want candidates to be upfront and explicit about the exceptions they support. Be aware that 90% of the country wants exceptions beyond rape, incest and life of the mother, particularly the ability of the baby to survive, the health of the mother and serious genetic defects.
There are other cautions: first, if a self-identified pro-life politician says “anyway there aren’t the votes” — what is heard is that if there were, that that politician would override a popular abortion law with the most restrictive one they can get away with, with a goal of an outright ban.
That too is why “leave it to the states” is too often heard as “yeah, you want to turn my state into Oklahoma.” Instead, much as Vance did say that it is being left to the people of the states to decide, their decisions should be respected, and that what’s right for Oklahoma isn’t right for Pennsylvania.
Be aware, too, that people do not believe there are late-term elective abortions of healthy babies in any significant numbers that are not medically necessary: If they hear someone say “late-term abortions” or say “Democrats want abortion,” they think that is hyperbole and politicizing the issue. Better phrasing would be “at any time for any reason.”
Millions of voters — in particular women — would be very open, even more likely to support Republicans, and prioritize issues like the economy, immigration and security. But that happens only after they are comfortable that a candidate is not out of line with their preferences on abortion.
Featured Image Credit: Ralph Branson
