During the Republican primaries, I was for Ron DeSantis.
I was so convinced DeSantis—the successful, thoroughly conservative governor of my home state—would be the best Republican presidential candidate to beat Joe Biden, that I helped launch the Ready for Ron PAC that spent millions of dollars to — successfully — draft Ron to run. I thought his exceedingly well-funded campaign and “allied” super PAC would be able to deliver victory—but I was wrong, and that’s politics.
I was convinced DeSantis’ proven track record of success and pro-freedom bona fides would carry the day, in large part because all the data I saw made it clear how much harder it would be for Donald Trump to win back the White House. Analyzing billions of behavioral impressions across millions of voters through multiple, constant “anti-polling” studies (a better approach to public opinion analysis), I was increasingly concerned that swing voters had utterly abandoned Trump, making re-election much, much harder.
I also believed Republican primary voters would back the best bet to beat Biden—but I was wrong, and that’s democracy.
I wasn’t pro-Ron because I was anti-Trump, but because I am deeply anti-Biden and there was just too much data showing me Trump couldn’t win back swing voters in November.
Turns out, I was wrong about that too. Trump—with no small amount of help from Joe Biden—has turned the tide. He now appears poised to win back swing voters and the White House.
After all, who could have predicted a historic (and legally baseless) criminal conviction, in a series of increasingly absurd lawfare campaigns? But, to the Left’s chagrin, Trump’s trial over the alleged falsification of business records appears to have worked decidedly in his favor. A multi-month survey from May and June of more than 40,000 crucial swing voters and their organic social media activity points to only one thing: His support skyrocketed from the beginning of the sham trial to its disreputable end. The Trump bounce is real, and this time it’s sticking.
As unfair gag orders and the sheer duration of the legal process limited Trump’s opportunities to speak, more and more swing voters moved in his direction. While left-leaning independents cheered the New York jury’s dubious decision, centrists and right-leaning independents grew uneasy, questioning whether the case should have ever been brought in the first place. And Trump’s net sentiment score rose, while Joe Biden dropped seven points as suspicions remain about the Democrats’ partisan lawfare.
The Democrats cheering on their conviction are playing with fire—without even knowing it. Americans in the middle are not amused, fully understanding the dangerous precedent that left-wing lawfare has established and recognizing the blatant double standard that applies to Trump but not Hillary Clinton, Hunter Biden, Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), and the rest of the Left’s rogue gallery.
Since April, Trump’s net sentiment score among swing voters has jumped a whopping 15 points, while Biden is dragged down further by policy-related issues. From the inflationary economy to sky-high crime and illegal immigration en masse, Democrats are failing on key issues, and swing voters are rightly blaming Biden’s failed leadership.
The way it’s trending, especially after that painful debate, Biden’s chances in November are rapidly dwindling. From the latest anti-polling data to Trump’s monthly fundraising records, the Republican nominee is poised to storm back into the White House, with swing voters rejecting a failed incumbent who ages less gracefully by the day. It is Biden’s catch-22: If voters think he’s incompetent, they won’t vote for him; and if they think he is competent, they blame him for the mess that is his presidency.
Of course, the 2024 race is far from over, and Trump’s resurgent support among swing voters is not ironclad. But the momentum also doesn’t lie: Americans are fed up with Biden and running out of excuses to support him.
Swing voters (still) hold the key to the 2024 election. They’ve had enough, and are ready to make America great again—again.
Dan Backer is a veteran campaign counsel, having served more than 100 candidates and political action committees, overseeing more than $150 million in political spending over the past decade. He practices law as a member of Chalmers, Adams, Backer & Kaufman LLC.
July 9, 2024 at 7:00 a.m
