The Air Force doubled down on promises to fund the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, one-third of the Department of Defense’s upgraded three-part nuclear deterrent, after the program suffered critical cost increases, Defense One reported.
The Pentagon told Congress on Jan. 18 that inflation, poor budgeting and other setbacks had driven up costs to build the replacement for aging Minuteman III nuclear-armed ICBM’s by more than 37%, placing the program at risk of termination. However, the service does not plan to abandon the embattled program, as the service pivots to fewer, higher-end weapons while managing cost overruns for the Sentinel that have ballooned out of proportion, according to Defense One.
“Sentinel will be funded. We’ll make the trades that it takes to make that happen,” Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said Wednesday at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Defense One reported.
The Air Force recently notified Congress that the estimated cost for Sentinel rose from $95.3 billion to more than $125 billion, triggering what’s known as a Nunn-McCurdy breach. Legally, a cost overrun of more than 30% is considered “critical” and sets a program on the path to termination, according to the Nunn-McCurdy Act, unless the secretary of defense certifies that there is no alternative.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is expected to make that certification, according to Air and Space Forces Magazine.
“Some of the assumptions that were made at the beginning of the program when the initial cost estimates were made were just not particularly valid, and now we have a lot more information that should allow us to stay much closer to the cost estimates that will be developed as part of the Nunn-McCurdy process,” Kristyn Jones, the acting under secretary of the Air Force, said, according to Defense One.
Extending the life of the current land-based nuclear deterrent is not an option, the officials said, according to Defense One. The Cold War-era Minuteman III ICBMs have already far exceeded their planned lifespan.
“There is not a viable service life extension program that we can foresee for Minuteman III. It was fielded in the 70s as a 10-year weapon,” Moore said.
The Air Force plans to transition from buying “platforms and weapons” in 2024 to “integrated, end-to-end effects chains” as it works out how to fund Sentinel, Moore said, according to Defense One.
Aircraft fleet sizes will decrease — fighter fleets will decrease from seven to two; bombers from four to two; and tankers from three to two — cutting the average age of the fleet and allow the force to only put things that are “relevant” on the battlefield, Moore said.
