Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is on track to win the Democrat presidential nomination contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Sanders has jumped out to a lead over former vice president Biden in the last three polls taken in New Hampshire. In Iowa, Sanders is surging and jumped to a lead in the Des Moines Register poll.
The last six winners of the Iowa Caucus have gone on to win the Democrat nomination. No Democrat who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has ever lost the nomination.
Sanders will be the first.
Because Joe Biden has a trick up his sleeve.
Normally that propels a candidate to unstoppable momentum, but after the Nevada primary, the Democrat primary campaign comes to South Carolina, followed by six southern states on one day.
And that’s where Sanders runs into Biden’s “black wall.”
Past Iowa/New Hampshire winners, like Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, enjoyed strong black support and won the states despite their largely white electorate. After Iowa and New Hampshire, the rest of the primary schedule was like coasting downhill.
But in this contest, black voters are siding heavily with Biden, whose folksy manner and ties to Obama make him the preferred choice.
That means even if Sanders crushes Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire, the largely white and liberal voters who delivered that mandate are hard to find in South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Sanders, along with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, hope they can crack Biden’s “black wall” by defeating him in early states and making black voters doubt he can beat Trump.
The problem is, black voters just don’t like them.
Julius Stephens, a 74-year-old black South Carolina Democrat, tells POLITICO he won’t even consider Warren or Sanders because against Trump voters “would never vote for a woman and a liberal that’s been branded a socialist.”
He believes that, despite Biden’s faults, he’s still the strongest candidate against Trump.
Polling shows he’s not alone. Even as Biden’s support nationwide has slumped among Democrats and he’s flopped in debates, his black support has barely moved.
“Polling by The Washington Post and Ipsos released a week ago found Biden at 48 percent with black voters nationally, compared with Sanders at 20 percent and Warren at 9 percent,” POLITICO reports. “A recent Fox News poll of South Carolina had Biden with 43 percent among black voters in the state, trailed by billionaire Tom Steyer at 16 percent. (They also finished one-two overall among Democratic primary voters.)”
That sets up a potentially historic collapse by an increasingly radicalized Democrat Party. With its white affluent liberal wing rapidly increasing its distance from its more moderate black and Hispanic wing, Sanders could become the first early primary winner to be practically eliminated from the race just weeks later.
AAN Staff
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