On the night of July 15th, Turkey experienced an attempted coup by members of the military against the Islamic-leaning President Erdogan. The coup was eventually defeated by protesters, police forces and loyalist military units. Following the failed coup, President Erdogan initiated a purge of government officials. So what happened, where is Turkey going and what does it mean for America?
After the breakup of the Ottoman Empire following World War One, Turkey was reformed by Mustafa Ataturk, who made it into a modern, Western oriented republic. Islam in politics was seen as the cause for Turkey’s defeat, so it was purged from the public square. Harsh secularism was established, banning women’s hijabs for example, and Arabic script was replaced by a Latin one. The capital was moved from Constantinople, renamed Istanbul, to the center of Turkey in a new city called Ankara. Since then, Turkey has been constantly torn between its Islamic heritage and its Western aspirations. It joined NATO against what it saw as Russian encroachment, and proved to be a valuable ally in containing communism.
However, Turkey has slowly drifted back toward Islamism in its government. Erdogan, a “moderate” Islamist if such a term exists, has been centralizing power in his own hands and that of his supporters. The military coup in July was meant to overthrow him from power, placing power in the hands of generals before new elections for secular candidates could be held. Now that it has failed, Erdogan has swiftly moved to purge the government of his adversaries. Thousands of soldiers have been arrested and subjected to torture and rape according to RT. Thousands of judges have been fired, as well as countless teachers, journalists, civil servants and police officers. The deputy mayor of Istanbul was even shot dead only three days after the failed coup, though its unconfirmed if Erdogan’s goons had anything to do with it.
While Turkey is drifting towards Islamic authoritarianism at home, will it continue to cooperate with the West? The US and NATO as a whole make use of several Turkish bases to fly combat missions in Iraq and Syria, Turkey has not stepped up against ISIS despite it being on its border. In fact, it is hostile to NATO’s actions in the Middle East because it is supporting Kurds – Turkey’s enemy. It also has poor if not conflictual relationships with its neighbors like Greece and Armenia.
Ultimately, Turkey is sinking into tyranny, but does that affect the US? If Erdogan simply was a petty dictator who followed US foreign policy interests like a puppet, he’d be “a son of a bitch, but our son of a bitch” to paraphrase FDR. However, Erdogan is not working in our interest, and might even be working closer with Putin, who has always been interested in fulfilling Russia’s desire for better access to the highly strategic Turkish Straits.
So what alternatives? If Turkey is to become an opponent, the US has many other friends in the region it can fall back on for striking against ISIS. First, the Kurds have been stalwart friends for the last 25 years, and could be given even better arms to fight ISIS and act as a regional proxy against a more dangerous Iran, Turkey and Russia. Cyprus is another country that could be useful, which already hosts large British bases, and are almost as close to ISIS as current Turkish bases are. Jordan, Iraq and Israel are all friendly countries in this neighborhood, and could host US aircraft in the case Turkey closes all its airbases to us.
Ultimately, Europe will have to strengthen itself to be able to stand up to Turkey. For now, Erdogan completely controls the route between Europe and ISIS controlled territory. The US and Europe will have to strengthen their security capabilities if they want to rely less on Turkey. Until then, a weakened West will be at the mercy of Turkey if we want to continue the fight against ISIS.
AAN Staff
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