The polling proved wrong for the Iowa Republican Caucuses, at least in terms of predicting the first place finisher. During period of January 18-31, ten surveys were fielded from nine different pollsters. All projected Donald Trump to win the Iowa voting from between one and eight percentage points. He ended, as we know, placing second and four points behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) was stronger than expected, notching third position. Though most pollsters projected him a distant third, only two, the Emerson College Polling Society and Opinion Savvy, placed him in the actual realm of finish.
The Iowa Caucuses claimed four casualties as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) all suspended their presidential campaigns. Dr. Paul remains in the political arena and will concentrate on his Senate re-election campaign. Democrats have recruited a top tier candidate to challenge Sen. Paul, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray.
Pollsters were closer in predicting the Democratic finish, but none forecast the virtual tie that became the actual result. The Democratic process is much different than the Republican procedure. This allowed Hillary Clinton to score a lead in the Iowa delegate count (29-21), but that won’t likely provide her a lift heading into New Hampshire. The latest Granite State polls give Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) a major lead over Ms. Clinton in NH. Once the campaign turns south, however, she will rebound and likely clinch the nomination in early to mid-March.
Republican polling suggests a strong lead for Trump in New Hampshire, which is now becoming a must-win for the flamboyant businessman. Should he fail to capture first place, Trump’s campaign could begin the drive down a slippery slope and into political oblivion. The real race, however, may be for second and third place. Candidates such as Govs. John Kasich (R-OH), Chris Christie (R-NJ), and ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush need a second or third place score to remain viable. Sen. Rubio still needs to perform well here in order to expand the momentum he developed in Iowa. The New Hampshire primary is next Tuesday.
AAN Staff
The staff at American Action News are consummate professionals, who when not producing original, hard-hitting content, are scouring the internet to bring you the unfiltered news that matters to you! Our mission is to maximize your experience on our website. If we can ever be of assistance, please do not hesitate to let us know!
