Tonight marks one of the final Republican primaries before the Iowa Caucus. Here’s what to expect.
The Candidates: Tonight’s debate will feature Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich. The undercard debate will feature Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee. Rand Paul will be boycotting after being left off the main stage, despite leading both Jeb! and Kasich in several polls. We’d like to think he’ll be at home, drinking bourbon and live tweeting the event with Jim Gilmore, who is surprisingly still in the election despite not having enough support to qualify for undercard debates.
The Birther Issue: With the Iowa caucus approaching and Ted Cruz starting to gain on Trump nationally, expect the GOP frontrunner to drive this home. His base loves it, and it may be the thing that forces Cruz to attack Trump for the first time. How Cruz responds should be interesting. Expect one of the mainstream candidates to defend Cruz, likely Rubio.
Nothing to Lose Candidates: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich all have everything riding on New Hampshire, and all trail Marco Rubio. So far, Kasich has been the most vocal, often interrupting other candidates and answering entirely different questions than the ones he’s asked. Expect more of the same from the Ohio Governor, whose only tactic seems to be sheer brutality. This may well be his last debate.
Expect Jeb! Bush to pull out all the stops tonight. He’ll have something for Rubio, something for Trump, and something for anyone else who criticizes him. Expect him to fall flat once again, as voters continue to ask why the heck he’s still running. Expect him to attack Rubio’s lack of experience and Christie’s liberal voting record.
Expect Chris Christie to attack Rubio, his main competition in New Hampshire, and to try and present himself to establishment voters as the safer, more electable version of Trump.
Rubio: Now or Never- The establishment has been talking about the inevitability of Rubio for quite some time, but he’s yet to distinguish himself by dominating one debate. He’ll have one more chance before Iowa, but he trails Trump and Cruz by a large margin there, and he’ll at least need an impressive showing to rally establishment candidates behind him going into New Hampshire. Getting a headstart tonight is extremely important for his campaign, especially if he can effectively bury Jeb Bush.
If he can’t, expect this to devolve into a two man race between Trump and Cruz.