Can Hillary Clinton lose the first two primaries of 2016 and still win the nomination?
In 2008, an Iowa caucus loss to upstart Illinois Senator Barack Obama doomed the “inevitable” nomination of Clinton, despite a comeback win in New Hampshire.
But in 2016, she may lose both states.
Clinton has trailed Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire by double digits for several weeks, which is of little surprise given Sanders’ 25-year political career in neighboring New Hampshire.
But now a new survey from the polling firm ARG shows Clinton trailing Sanders in Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses, 47 percent to 44 percent.
Clinton had held a large lead over Sanders in Iowa for most of 2015, but it steadily eroded as scandals and criminal investigations took their toll on her. Polls taken in the last few weeks showed Clinton holding into a narrow, and disappearing, lead.
But it may be worse. Iowa is a caucus state, not a primary state. That means instead of walking into a polling place, casting a ballot, and walking out, voters must attend a lengthy meeting and vote as a bloc. Supporting your candidate now requires a time commitment.
That often means the candidates with the more enthusiastic supporters, like Sanders, perform better than they polled.
Clinton is undoubtedly deploying additional forces to Iowa to stave off a loss. While a largely-black Democrat turnout in the third nominating state of South Carolina will hand her a win there, an upset loss in Iowa, combined with the expected loss in New Hampshire could cripple her, causing her to either lose the nomination or be forced to spend tends of millions of dollars needed for the general to salvage a win.
AAN Staff
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