Donald Trump continues to lead in the Republican presidential primary polling. The latest CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and Morning Consult polls have given him their highest numbers so far. Monmouth University also released a poll that has Trump up by 10 points over Ben Carson.
Many GOP Establishment types are now starting to wonder aloud if Trump will be the nominee. But the establishment has no plans to take it lying down. According to the Washington Examiner’s Byron York, they’re preparing a massive campaign of negative attacks on Trump starting in January.
Over the weekend I talked to a leading conservative who opposes Trump. I asked what would happen if January comes and Trump is still dominating the race. Would he and other conservatives make their peace with Trump’s candidacy, or would there be massive resistance?
“Massive resistance,” was the answer. “He’s not a conservative.” […]
But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders’ unshakeable faith that negative ads work.
“I don’t think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire,” says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. “It would force him to spend money. That’s when this starts to get real for him.” (“Points” refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)
But will this have an effect on Trump? He is building an organization in the early states and he has hired up many smart operatives. Plus, Trump can decide to hit back. If Trump hits back, he will likely have the support of much of the conservative media. Finally, here’s the thing about negative TV ads: they may no longer be as effective as they once were. People have DVR now so they can just skip the commercials.
If Trump can be taken down, it’s doubltful that the establishment’s plan that’s being floated will work. Taking Trump down will take a multi-pronged attack that must include direct mail, grassroots organizing, and digital efforts that the GOP establishment may not be capable of executing.
AAN Staff
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