Jim Ellis looks at the House and Senate races.
Senate
Kentucky: Sen. Rand Paul (R) departs the presidential campaign to concentrate on his Senate re-election. Democrats now have Lexington Fayette Urban County Government Mayor Jim Gray (D) as their candidate, who has the ability to run a strong campaign. Sen. Paul will remain a strong favorite for a second term in part because Kentucky will remain a solid Republican state in the presidential campaign so the Democratic ticket will not get a boost from the national campaign. Still, this could be a Senate race to watch.
Maryland: Candidate filing closed in the Free State, and neither Reps. John Delaney (D-MD-6) nor Elijah Cummings (D-MD-7) filed to run for the Senate. No one expected either man to file at the last moment, but each refused to close the door on entering a Senate contest until filing closed. Both filed for re-election for their respective House seats. Reps. Donna Edwards (D-MD-4) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD-8) are the leading contenders to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D).
House
Retirements: Two more House members joined the cavalcade of Representatives not seeking another term in 2016. Reps. Stephen Fincher (R-TN-8) and Reid Ribble (R-WI-8) voluntarily ending their congressional service at the end of this term means 39 seats will be open in the coming election: 25 Republican held as compared to 14 from Democratic districts. The higher number of retirements and those vacating to seek a different political office means that 148 seats have been in open status during the last three election cycles.
Virginia Redistricting: The US Supreme Court denied the congressional Republicans’ motion to stay the implementation of the lower court redistricting alterations, meaning the new map will be in effect for the 2016 election. Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake) is on the political hot seat because his 4th District has been turned from a Likely Republican seat into a Likely Democratic one. The two adjacent seats, Districts 2 and 5, have been made more Republican, and since both have retiring Republican incumbents, Forbes will likely change districts. Outgoing Rep. Scott Rigell (R-Virginia Beach) is openly encouraging Forbes to run in the new 2nd District, which becomes eight percentage points more Republican. He will have Republican opposition, however, at least in the person of state Delegate Scott Taylor. Rep. Forbes has never represented any of the Virginia Beach area. His senior post on the Veteran Affairs Committee, however, should help him in this heavily military district. It is likely Democrats will gain one seat here in the upcoming election and improve the state ratio, from their perspective, to 7R-4D. The Republican gain in the two open seats, however, and can effectively remove those from the competitive board.
PA-8: Rep. Scott Petri (R), a one-time favorite to replace retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), ended his congressional campaign late this week. With the local county party on the cusp of formally endorsing the Congressman’s brother, Brian Fitzpatrick a retired FBI agent who announced his candidacy last week, it appeared that Mr. Petri would have a difficult road to securing the nomination for what will be a competitive November campaign. With Petri out, Brian Fitzpatrick has the inside track for the nomination and will face Democratic state Rep. Steve Santarsiero or businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton, the latter a favorite of national liberal organizations.
West Virginia: Candidate filing closed in the Mountain State during the past week. It appears that only the 2nd District of freshman Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) will see serious competition in the fall. Former state Delegate Mark Hunt (D), who dropped his bid for state Attorney General in order to run for Congress, will likely be the leading Democratic candidate. Mooney held off former state Democratic Party chairman Nick Casey 47-44% in 2014, but the latter did not return to seek a re-match.
WY-AL: Rep. Cynthia Lummis’ (R-Cheyenne) at-large open seat is attracting a great deal of attention. Announcing in a Twitter feed with an Alexandria, VA address, Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney (R), who briefly began an ill-fated primary challenge to Sen. Mike Enzi (R) in 2014, says she will run for the US House post that her father once held. Also in the Republican race are state Sen. Leland Christensen and state Rep. Tim Stubson, in addition to four others. The August 16th Wyoming Republican primary will decide who succeeds Ms. Lummis since Democrats are not competitive here in the general election. The Congresswoman is retiring after what will be four terms in office.
AAN Staff
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