Vice President Biden: The Democratic nomination was virtually clinched this week when Mr. Biden announced that he will not enter the presidential campaign. Saying his “window of opportunity had closed”, the Biden decision eliminates former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s most formidable potential opponent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) has the ability to score against her in the northeast, but he is getting very little support in the south and almost none within the African American community. These two factors, and her strength with the 1,200 Super Delegates, should be enough to award the former First Lady and US Senator the Democratic nomination.
Jim Webb (D): Former Virginia Sen. Webb also dropped from contention, coming to the clear conclusion that he cannot win the Democratic nomination. He is leaving the door open to qualify as an Independent candidate in the general election, but he is likely to be a non-factor when we enter the general election campaign even if he manages to qualify for the ballot in all 50 states, which is no easy feat.
Polls: Now that Vice President Biden is out of consideration, the succeeding polls will give us a strong picture of where the Democratic race is headed. Expect them to portend that Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for the party nomination. On the Republican side, Quinnipiac University released a survey (10/14-20; 574 likely IA Republican Caucus attenders) that finds Dr. Ben Carson overtaking Donald Trump in the important state of Iowa. According to the data, Carson now leads Trump 28-20%, with Sen. Marco Rubio placing third at 13%, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz also finding double-digits at 10%. Wisconsin reported a survey with similar results. According to the Norbert College Strategic Institute, polling for the local Wisconsin NPR radio network, (10/14-17; 600 WI state residents without delineating the number of Republican primary voters were sampled), Dr. Carson has a 20-18-18-10% lead in that state over Sen. Rubio, Mr. Trump, and Sen. Cruz, respectively. The polling sample is questionable, so the results must be viewed skeptically.
AAN Staff
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