According to a Change Research poll published Monday, embattled Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore is back in the lead in Alabama, experiencing a dramatic 8-point swing from just ten days ago. When pollsters dug a little deeper on what was fueling the reversal, they found more Republicans determined to vote for the special election and less willing to believe the “garbage” allegations against the candidate.
In a survey of 1,868 registered Alabama voters conducted November 26–27, which weights the results according to likelihood to vote, Change Research found that Moore has not only wiped out his former deficit to Democrat Doug Jones but now leads by 5 points, 49–44. That constitutes an 8-point swing from ten days ago, when Jones led by 3 percent a little over a week after the Washington Post published allegations from four women alleging that Moore pursued them sexually or romantically when they were teenagers and he was in his early 30s.
“Moore’s lead is now just as large as it was just after the story broke,” the pollsters note.
The positive movement for Moore is in part driven by a 6% increase in the number of Trump voters who now say they will “definitely” vote in the special election (88%, up from 82%). The group the pollsters describe as Moore’s “base” are also a bit more committed to voting for him now, up 2% (to 93-4 from 91-5), while 3% fewer say they plan to write-in a candidate (7%, down from 10%).
AAN Staff
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