With the Democratic presidential race already winnowing down into a two-way campaign between former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT), the contest is virtually decided.
Ms. Clinton will romp to victory and likely claim the party nomination right after Super Tuesday voting concludes on March 1st.
The once close Iowa contest, the very state that began the ex-Sec of State and New York Senator’s eventual demise in 2008 at the hands of then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), is no longer such. According to the latest ten published polls during the 11/16-12/21 period, Ms. Clinton leads in every survey by an average of 15.2 percentage points. Her largest lead, 32 points (59-27%), came from the Loras College poll conducted during the 12/7-10 period.
New Hampshire remains a different story, and proves to be the only early state where Sen. Sanders has a legitimate chance of winning. In the last ten polls, all taken during the 10/29-12/22 span, both candidates lead in five different studies. In fact, in the five taken after November 30th, Sanders leads in three (averaging a 8.7% margin). In the two where Ms. Clinton has the edge, her advantage averages only 2.5%.
When the campaign turns to the southern states, which dominate the March 1st Super Tuesday voting, Ms. Clinton’s lead becomes overwhelming. In the ten South Carolina polls conducted between 10/3-12/17, for example, the former First Lady holds a whopping per poll average lead of 43.8 percent.
Her margins are similar to that found in South Carolina in other major southern Super Tuesday states, primarily Texas and Georgia. Florida and North Carolina, which vote two weeks later in March, are also producing huge Clinton numbers.
Hillary Clinton will soon have the advantage of beginning to prepare for a general election campaign long before she has an official Republican opponent. How she uses the precious lag time may well define her November prospects.
AAN Staff
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