Jim Ellis covers the polls…
The first 2016 presidential campaign votes will actually be cast next month in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada and, at this point, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appears to be a lock for the Democratic nomination. Though the latest polling certainly shows Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders competitive with Ms. Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, he trails badly in all of the southern states and in the important Super Delegate category. Much of the South will vote in the March 1st Super Tuesday primary, meaning the nomination fight will likely be over at that time.
For Republicans, a long process will begin in February. In Iowa, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads in most polls, but Donald Trump has substantial polling advantages in the other three February states and most of those voting on Super Tuesday. Still, it appears no one is on a path to capture the nomination on the first ballot, which could mean the first deadlocked political convention since Wendell Willkie became the Republican standard bearer on the sixth ballot at the 1940 GOP convention. The last time a convention went longer than the Willkie-Thomas E. Dewey battle occurred all the way back in 1920 when then-Ohio Sen. Warren G. Harding won the Republican nomination on the 11th ballot after securing just 5% of the vote on the first roll call.
The GOP race is very fluid, and it would not be surprising to see a second tier candidate rise to competitive status in the early February states. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) may become the candidate most of the establishment backs, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may be positioned well enough to by-pass former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Such an occurrence would almost assuredly end Bush’s effort and possibly allow Christie to become the dark horse February candidate.
AAN Staff
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