Republican Debate:  The sixth GOP presidential debate was held this week in South Carolina, and it featured the smallest number of participants to date.  Donald Trump, Dr. Ben Carson, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), Govs. Chris Christie (R-NJ), John Kasich (R-OH), and ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) comprised the debate contestants.  Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina were sent to the preliminary debate, which included ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA).  Sen. Paul declined to participate in the undercard debate.  The last forum prior to the first votes being cast in Iowa will be held in Des Moines on January 28th.

Polls:  A multitude of Iowa and New Hampshire political surveys suggest that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT) is in position to upset former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) in both Iowa and New Hampshire.  Several new polls find the Senator ahead of Ms. Clinton in each state.  Even if he pulls the victories, his lead will not last.  Once the campaign turns south for the March 1st Super Tuesday primaries, the nomination will be virtually clinched.

For the Republicans, several new polls conducted after January 1st suggest a very close contest forming between Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz.  Multiple polls have found both to be in first place by a point or two.  Such tight polling should be an indication that Cruz is in better position since it is widely believed he has the best voter turnout operation in the state.  It is surmised that Trump’s supporters, many of who have never participated in a caucus meeting, may have a lower turnout rate than the polls suggest.  Turning to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, the remaining February voting states, Trump continues to enjoy substantial leads over the entire GOP field.



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