The Florida Primary, held March 12th, is likely to play a major hand in determing who the GOP presidential candidate is. Guess who’s winning?
A new poll of Florida Republicans shows Donald Trump opening his biggest lead in the Sunshine State. The poll, from Florida Times-Union and Fox35, has Trump in first place, with 31 percent support, twelve points higher than Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) , who is in second place with 19 percent.
Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are locked in a battle for third, with Bush edging Rubio 13 percent to 12 percent. Rubio’s standing in this poll represents a 3 point decline from the Times-Union poll in December.
The Times-Union poll was conducted Sunday, after the Republican debate last week in Charleston. Nearly 70 percent of those interviewed for the poll reported watching the GOP debate.
Opinions of who won the debate closely match the head-to-head results. Nearly 37 percent of Republicans said Trump won the debate, while 25 percent said Cruz won the debate. The 12 point spread separating Trump and Cruz on debate performance is the same margin between them on a hypothetical vote.
Perhaps the most interesting finding is that the combined vote for Rubio and Bush is just 25 percent in their home state. This would put them below Trump and just slightly ahead of Cruz.
There’s a lot to unpack here. First, Rubio’s notable decline. The Florida Senator is the establishment favorite to knock off Trump, and his failure to gain momentum in his home state suggests he’s no lock to consolidate establishment support and mount a serious challenge to Trump for the party’s nomination. Second, both Trump and Cruz seem to be the only candidates with any sustained, significant upward momentum in the Sunshine State. If those trends continue, there may be no establishment challenge.
AAN Staff
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