Florida Atlantic University yesterday released a Sunshine State poll that finds Rep. David Jolly (R-FL-13) opening up a large lead in the open Republican Senate primary, but the results breed skepticism.
The survey, taken during the January 15-18 period of 1,108 Florida voters appears methodologically sound. The sample size is reasonable, though 345 Republican primary voters used for the Senate sample is a bit small for a state the size of Florida. The geographical division is cast evenly among the northern, central, and southern regions, which is constant. Yet, the ballot test results are way out line with anything previously published.
In several earlier polls, with no candidate having strong statewide name identification, Rep. Jolly, his congressional colleague Ron DeSantis (R-FL-6), and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera all fell below 20%, and were within just a few points of each other.
Yesterday’s FAU poll blasts these numbers out of the water, finding the Tampa Bay Congressman up 28-8-8% over his major opponents. Without anything extraordinary happening during the past several weeks, it is difficult to believe that Mr. Jolly should hold such a major advantage.
But his lead, should it prove accurate in the near term, could be short lived. Jolly stated that he no longer plans on personally devoting time to campaign fundraising, leaving that task to his staff and Super PACs. It’s hard to see how such a move will provide him with enough campaign resources to compete effectively over the long term.
Taking all of these political factors into account, the outcome of the Republican contest is still very much in doubt.
On the Democratic side, FAU surveyed 371 likely primary voters and finds Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL-9) holding a 27-20% margin over Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL-18). These results are consistent with others taken of the Democratic race. Rep. Gwen Graham (D-FL-2) is still a possible entry, which would drastically change the ballot test if she were to become a candidate.
AAN Staff
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