Despite projections that House Democrats would expand their majority by up to 20 seats, Republican candidates have flipped at least 12 districts from New York to California. Seven races remain uncalled, with Republicans leading in six and only down 13 votes in the seventh.
Now, a legal challenge from the Trump administration affecting redistricting procedures could shave the Democrats’ tenuous majority down further.
The Washington Free Beacon’s Kevin Daley reports on the latest developments in what has quietly developed into a blockbuster Supreme Court case:
The Trump administration will press its bid to exclude illegal aliens from the population baseline for awarding House seats on Monday in the Supreme Court, a move that would shift political clout away from states with large undocumented populations.
President Donald Trump’s July order to exclude illegal aliens from the apportionment could be one of his most consequential acts in office. States like California, where approximately 6 percent of the population is undocumented, will lose out on congressional seats and untold millions in federal funds if the administration prevails.
Blue states losing even a handful of seats would make the House’s thin Democratic majority even more precarious. Congressional analysts suggest Democrats will lose the House in 2022 on the basis of reapportionment alone, since red states with growing populations are expected to gain seats. But right-leaning states like Florida and Texas could each pick up one seat fewer as a result of the order, according to the Pew Research Center.
The dispute is moving at a fast clip. Census figures are by law due to the White House from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Dec. 31. President Trump must transmit a reapportionment to Congress by Jan. 10, 2021. The Constitution requires the government to conduct a census every 10 years.
The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the first Bush administration 28 years ago to include overseas military personnel as part of their home state’s population in the census.