Many people have tried to quantify Donald Trump’s success. Those on the establishment right have attributed it to a Tea Party and conservative entertainment class run amok. Those on the left have tried to describe it as the rise of a new racist, anti-immigrant populism. Turns out, it’s neither of those things. As the Wall Street Journal reports:
The biggest surprise of the presidential election so far is the emergence and persistent strength of Donald Trump. Although Ben Carson is remarkable in many respects, he is the latest iteration of a familiar figure in Republican primary campaigns: the favored candidate of conservative evangelicals.
By contrast, Mr. Trump is the staunchest champion of the white working class that American politics has seen in decades.
Thanks to a recently released survey, a collaboration between the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and the Brookings Institution, we can now identify with much greater precision the sources of Mr. Trump’s support and the sentiments of his supporters.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 39% of the white working class backs Mr. Trump, twice his share of white college-educated voters. Fifty-five percent of his supporters are white working class, compared with 35% for the rest of the Republican field and only 32% for Mr. Carson.
Among Mr. Trump’s white working-class supporters, the demographic group most likely to back him is composed of men ages 50-64, with no more than a high-school education. Compared with other groups in the PRRI-Brookings survey, these men are the least likely to believe that immigrants strengthen the U.S. and the most likely to believe that illegal immigrants are taking jobs away from American citizens. More than other voters, they are disturbed by the rising prevalence of non-English speakers in the U.S. And many blame Chinese imports and corporate outsourcing for U.S. job losses.
Trump’s focus on job creation and general economic optimism, couched with his anti immigration stance connects with both the aspirations and the frustrations of the American worker. He’s not simply saying government is the problem- he’s saying government has failed you, and I know how to fix it and make it work FOR YOU. This position occupies a middle ground that would be nearly impossible for an ideological purist, or a candidate backed by consituencies who directly benefit from lax immigration policies. Trump’s bluntness, right or wrong, evinces a level of common sense that voters inherently identify with, and feel welcomed by. “Let’s go to Washington and teach these incompetent boobs how to get things done.”
If things continue as they have, he may get that chance.
AAN Staff
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