This Professor Has Picked the President Correctly for the Last 32 Years. Guess Who He's Picking Now
Professor Alan Lichtman of American University has correctly predicted who will win the White House for 32 years. And he thinks Trump will beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Using a 13 question paradigm of true/false statements, which Licthman calls “the Keys to the White House,” Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential victory since 1984.
Lichtman’s paradigm is based off of historic campaign trends, and basically, if the majority of statements are deemed “True,” the election favors the incumbent party—in 2016, Hillary Clinton. If the majority of statements are deemed “False,” the opposition party—Trump—has the edge.
Lichtman’s statements are:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman has deemed that the Democrats have, for sure, lost five “keys”: number 1, 3, 7, 11, and 12. The sixth key, which would give the edge to Trump, is key number 4: the third party candidate. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, might have been a Republican governor, but data shows he’s hurting Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump.
Assuming Johnson gets more than five percent in November—he’s currently polling just above 10%—Lichtman says he “would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats."
Lichtman admits that the polarizing nature of Donald Trump makes him the “most difficult election to assess” since he began predicting the presidency in 1984—but still thinks he’ll ultimately “very narrowly” have the edge.
In November, the American people will either validate Lichtman’s theory once again—or prove it wrong for the first time since 1984.