Reasons The Next Election Will Not Be Favorable To The Dems

Reasons The Next Election Will Not Be Favorable To The Dems
As President Trump’s troubles mount, the long-standing expectation that Democrats will gain several House and Senate seats in 2018 has only intensified. At this point, many observers are expecting a bloodbath – and they’re right. But for structural, historical, and intangible reasons, expect the bloodbath to be for Democrats as the GOP further expands its dominance in both houses of Congress.

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1) Trump’s unpopularity won’t matter. Republicans and moderates who like Trump will vote Republican out sympathy with the president’s state of siege, but many of those who don’t like him will vote Republican as well. That’s because Americans tend to like “their guy” (or woman) in Washington whoever’s president and whatever the overall political climate.

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2) The Senate map is savage for Democrats. Only one Republican is up for re-election in a state that Hillary Clinton won last year, while 10 Democratic Senators are up for re-election in states that President Trump won last year. Many of those (North Dakota, Indiana, Montana, and West Virginia, to name a few) skew decidedly rightward. Of the Senate seats most likely to flip parties next year, only two (Nevada and Arizona) are currently held by Republicans.

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3) Structural reasons lock the Democrats out of the House. In fact, winning the House gets harder for Democrats every cycle. Gerrymandering has already created Republican-friendly maps throughout the country (an advantage that will likely grow in the next redistricting cycle given Republican dominance in the states). Further, the voter ID laws in 29 states tend to help Republicans, and in states like Missouri and Texas (both of which have Senate races next year), voter ID requirements have been getting stricter.
 Source: Daily Caller
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