Bikers For Trump Find New, Powerful Ally
With Democrats poised to retake the House and the Republican grasp on the Senate tenuous, it's vital we remember that mantra.
Fortunately, political success is not determined by polls – but by the number and effectiveness of activists on both sides.
With the midterms now days away, the final hours of every campaign's GOTV operation should focus on contacting supporters.
That's something Bikers for Trump instinctively know.
A determined effort by the political organization is paying dividends in rural Ohio, where an under the radar group of Trump supporters, Amish and Mennonite communities, could make all the difference.
The conservative communities ordinarily ride horse-drawn carriages to the poll, but now they're getting volunteer rides from Bikers for Trump.
Tens of thousands of Amish voters in Pennsylvania helped Donald J. Trump narrowly win Pennsylvania in 2016, securing his victory against Hillary Clinton. Since then, Republicans in neighboring Ohio have taken notice.
Turning untapped supporters into high propensity voters is a recipe for success – just ask former President Barack Obama.
Ten years ago, Democrats targeted low propensity voters belonging to a group that tended to support them: single women between the ages of 18 and 30. The party turned that bloc of young women into hard-left, high propensity voters.
Democrats did that by bolstering their databases with information gathered from Facebook profiles that showed what the favorite TV shows of women between 18 and 30 were. They proceeded to inundate them with ads claiming that Republicans were anti-women. Democrats continue to use the “War on Women” meme, even against female candidates like Joni Ernst in Iowa.
By 2012, this strategy turned young, single women into high-propensity voters that voted over 80 percent for Barack Obama.
For conservatives, there is a tried and true method to fight this, known as the Lincoln 4-Step:
“Make a perfect list of all the voters and ascertain with certainty for which they will vote. Keep a constant watch on the doubtful voters and have them talked to by those whom they have the most confidence. And on Election Day see that every Whig is brought to the polls.” –Abraham Lincoln
Bikers for Trump founder Chris Cox said the challenge facing his targeted outreach is overcoming "a 300- or 400-year-old tradition of not being politically active."
"We weren’t sure how well we’d be received here," Mr. Cox explained. "They almost exemplify the silent majority. They’re very private. They won’t ever put a yard sign in their yard. They’re much more likely to vote on state and local issues that are affecting their families directly. It’s kind of like a political science project."
Until about 10 years ago, the Amish tended to shun politics altogether.
However, the growing fissure between the left and the right has awoken this once-isolated, insular community.
It's still not clear whether Ohio's Amish community can make a difference in the Buckeye State's marquee races.
RealClearPolitics rates the Ohio Senate race as Lean Dem. Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) holds a 7.5 point lead over Republican Congressman Jim Renacci. The governor's race remains a toss-up; however, Democrat Richard Cordray appears to have pulled away with a slight lead of 3 to 6 points, according to the latest polls. Four congressional districts – all held by Republicans – are considered competitive.
Victory or defeat on Election Day will come down to turnout.